India-Russia Ties: A Plateauing Partnership

The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi, his first since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has sparked discussions about the state of India-Russia relations. While the meeting was marked by a show of bonhomie, underlying issues suggest that the strategic partnership between the two nations is plateauing.

Strained Economic Ties

Plans for economic integration and a $100-billion trade target are purely aspirational, with the military relationship being the primary focus. The lease of a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia for $2 billion over 10 years, while significant, is not indicative of a closer military relationship. The submarine will only be used for training purposes and will be in Indian possession for just a decade.

Delays in fulfilling defense contracts, exorbitant prices, and unavailability of spare parts have strained the military relationship. The army is still waiting for two S-400 missile systems purchased in 2018, with only three delivered so far. The Russian military-industrial complex is overcommitted, causing uncertainty about the delivery of the remaining systems.

Migrant Concerns and Energy Dependence

Issues such as migration and crude purchases have also become points of contention. Reports of Indian young men being promised jobs in Russia but ending up on the frontlines in Ukraine have raised concerns in New Delhi. Meanwhile, crude purchases, the backbone of the bilateral relationship, are becoming more problematic as the Russians show little interest in reciprocal trade.

Political Motives

Both Russia and India have their own reasons for maintaining the relationship. For Russia, it allows Putin to claim domestic support and counter China's influence. For India, it serves as a reminder to Europe and the US of the need to engage with New Delhi and a signal to China that it cannot control the region uncontested.

Implications for North East India and India at Large

The evolving India-Russia relationship has implications for the North East region and India as a whole. As China's influence grows in the region, India needs to maintain strong relationships with other global powers to balance this influence. The plateauing of the India-Russia partnership may force India to seek other allies or deepen existing relationships to counter China's rise.

Reflections and Future Directions

While the India-Russia relationship may be plateauing, it still serves a purpose in signaling to China and the West. However, both India and Russia must recognize that their special and privileged strategic partnership is nearing its limits. To move forward, they must address the underlying issues in their relationship, particularly in the areas of defense procurement, trade, and migration.